projected annual profits

Projected annual profits for an investment in a walnut orchard

All well-managed walnut orchards will eventually reach maturity and produce abundant profits for the owner. The journey to maturity, however, can vary. Some acres will mature earlier than others, a hailstorm can damage the production in any given year, some trees might succumb to disease. There are always variables that can’t be controlled.

This is why we’ve prepared 9 different scenarios, varying the price and yields in each scenario so that the investor can see the result that optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral yields have on the evolution of the orchard and its annual profits. Along with yields, investors can project changes in the international export price of walnuts and see how changing prices will effect their investment.

Yield Scenario
Pessimistic
Neutral
Optimistic
Price Scenario
Pessimistic
Neutral
Optimistic

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 11,266 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Pessimistic Yield Scenario
  • Neutral Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 9
  • Maturity in Year 10
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                  3 30 149 596 2,980 8,940 14,900
5% Management Fee       (7) (30) (149) (447) (745)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (2,889) (2,886) (2,861) (2,747) (2,323) (58) 5,604 11,266

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 15,969 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Pessimistic Yield Scenario
  • Neutral Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 8
  • Maturity in Year 10
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                  4 40 199 794 3,970 11,910 19,850
5% Management Fee     (2) (10) (40) (199) (596) (993)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (2,889) (2,885) (2,851) (2,700) (2,135) 883 8,426 15,969

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 20,671 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Pessimistic Yield Scenario
  • Optimistic Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 8
  • Maturity in Year 10
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                  5 50 248 992 4,960 14,880 24,800
5% Management Fee     (2) (12) (50) (248) (744) (1,240)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (2,889) (2,884) (2,842) (2,653) (1,946) 1,823 11,247 20,671

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 11,266 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Neutral Yield Scenario
  • Pessimistic Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 5
  • Maturity in Year 8
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,192 1,788 3,576 7,450 12,814 14,900 14,900 14,900
5% Management Fee (60) (89) (179) (373) (641) (745) (745) (745)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,756) (1,190) 508 4,189 9,284 11,266 11,266 11,266

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 15,969 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Neutral Yield Scenario
  • Neutral Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 5
  • Maturity in Year 8
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,588 2,382 4,764 9,925 17,071 19,850 19,850 19,850
5% Management Fee (79) (119) (238) (496) (854) (993) (993) (993)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,380) (626) 1,637 6,540 13,329 15,969 15,969 15,969

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 20,671 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Neutral Yield Scenario
  • Optimistic Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 5
  • Maturity in Year 7
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,984 2,976 5,952 12,400 21,328 24,800 24,800 24,800
5% Management Fee (99) (149) (298) (620) (1,066) (1,240) (1,240) (1,240)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,004) (62) 2,766 8,891 17,373 20,671 20,671 20,671

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 12,965 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Optimistic Yield Scenario
  • Pessimistic Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 5
  • Maturity in Year 7
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,192 2,012 4,023 16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688
5% Management Fee (60) (101) (201) (402) (834) (834) (834) (834)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,756) (978) 933 4,755 12,965 12,965 12,965 12,965

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 18,232 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Optimistic Yield Scenario
  • Neutral Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 5
  • Maturity in Year 7
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,588 2,680 5,360 22,232 22,232 22,232 22,232 22,232
5% Management Fee (79) (134) (268) (536) (1,112) (1,112) (1,112) (1,112)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,380) (343) 2,203 7,294 18,232 18,232 18,232 18,232

Projected Annual Profits

Projected Profits at Maturity

1 Hectare Plot
$ 23,498 Annual Profits at Maturity
  • Optimistic Yield Scenario
  • Optimistic Price Scenario
  • Breakeven in Year 4
  • Maturity in Year 7
Year by Year Projected Income & Expenses
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Gross Sales                1,984 3,348 6,696 13,392 27,776 27,776 27,776 27,776
5% Management Fee (99) (167) (335) (670) (1,389) (1,389) (1,389) (1,389)
Annual Orchard Expenses (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889) (2,889)
Net Cash Flows From Operations (2,889) (1,004) 292 3,472 9,834 23,498 23,498 23,498 23,498

Projected Annual Profits